Ampere Analysis’ research director for games, Piers Harding-Rolls, has released a report (as covered by GamesIndustry.biz) which suggests that the PlayStation 5 will outsell the Xbox Series X by the year 2024.
The full analytical report argues that the PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series X‘ sales figures will be relatively close upon their initial release. Specifically, Rolls believes that Sony will sell about 4.6 million PlayStation 5s in 2020 while Microsoft is projected to move about 3.3 million Xbox Series X units.
However, the gap between those projected sales figures grows substantially larger as time goes on. By 2022, Rolls estimates that Sony will sell 33 million PlayStation 5s compared to just 21 million Xbox Series X sold. By 2024, he believes Sony will have sold 66 million PlayStation 5 units while Microsoft will have “only” sold 37 million units.
These projections are based on a few factors. Rolls believes that the gap between these consoles sales figures will not be quite so great at first due largely to improvements to the Xbox brand made by Microsoft in recent years as well as the effect of some projected Xbox Series X features and games. Specifically, he believes that the potential selling power of Halo Infinite as a Series X launch title combined with Microsoft’s consumer-friendly policies will help ensure that the Series X gets off to a relatively strong start.
However, Rolls believes that the strength of the PlayStation brand on a global scale (as well as the strength of the console’s projected lineup of exclusives) will ultimately ensure that the gap between the two console’s sales figures will be too great for the Xbox team to overcome.
To be fair, we saw a similar scenario play out during this previous console generation. While Microsoft eventually addressed some of the Xbox One’s most notable shortcomings, they ultimately couldn’t catch up with the runaway success of the PlayStation 4. Microsoft has also indicated that they’re not leaning as hard on the idea that you have to buy a Series X to enjoy notable upcoming games, which could impact its long-term sales.
Still, these estimates are obviously based on assumptions regarding everything from the price and release dates of these next-gen consoles to their projected game lineups over the next few years. That’s a lot of speculative information to base such analysis on, but we would say that these early sales figures do make sense based on what we do know about each next-gen console as well as the trajectory of the industry.